The Art Of The Long View by Peter Schwartz
In a nutshell: read a lot, think about all the ways the future could go wrong or right, wait for one of the futures to arrive, declare victory, write book.
I would conjecture that you should think about what could go wrong or right, read about the history of each, try to model how fast changes will occur, then try to find a way to monitor each process.
Historian Barbara Tuchman puts it this way: Men will not believe what does not fit in with their plans or suit their prearrangements.
Read widely (the following) to stay in the loop:
- Discover Magazine
- The Economist
- Electric Word
- Foreign Affairs
- Future Survey
- The Manchester Guardian Weekly
- Mondo 2000
- The New Yorker
- New Options
- New Scientist
- New York Times Tuesday Science
- Release 1.0
- Scientific American
- Technology Review
- Utne Reader
- Washington Spectator
- Whole Earth Reader
When a book, or magazine article, or idea makes you uncomfortable, notice your exact reaction. If you're bored, move on. If you feel threatened, stay with it and see what troubles you.
Whenever I look for driving forces I first run through a familiar litany of categories: Society, Technology, Economics, Politics, Environment