Deals from Hell by Robert F. Bruner
Written after the turn of the 21st century, this book uses the following methodology: Let's look at a bunch of wrecks and see what's common to them. Bruner apparently failed Stats 101 as he should have taken all the firms that attempted M&As and excluded the commons across all. If he had done that, he would have seen that not only failures have problems with hubris or incentives or decision-making ability. His margin-of-safety comments seem more spot-on to me, but I don't know since he didn't add anything to human knowledge.
Dietrich Dorner has written, "Failure does not strike like a bolt from the blue; it develops gradually according to its own logic." A chief of the National Transportation Safety Board said, "When has an accident occurred which has not had a precursor incident? ... basically never."